Quinn Emmett

April 30, 2021

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Welcome back, Shit Givers.

Apparently both GDP and humidity are back, which means today’s newsletter is coming to you straight through the extra t-shirt I have stashed in my office.

Please extend a very warm welcome to the 2,124 new Shit Givers who’ve joined us since last week.

In brief: AI’s going backwards; carbon offsets are a mirage; falling birthrates and COVID; the end of malaria; Jordan’s out of water

This Week

The future’s stuck in the past.

The old school hunt and peck systems we built in the 20th century marginalized millions of people based on skin color, so the last thing we need is automated systems that do the whole thing faster and more efficiently in the 21st.

And yet we’ve already built them.

When diagnosing a systemic issue like racism, it’s important to get down to brass tacks: the issues don’t start with the police, or housing, or prisons, medical school, smoking, food, banking, delivery rooms, hiring, green space, movies, public schools, public transportation, or artificial intelligence.

They’re just the inevitable secondary effects of an artificial caste system so comprehensively designed and implemented over four centuries that Hitler’s fan boys were like “yikes”.

Everywhere we look, we’re training futuristic new algorithms to judge Black people unfairly, as if we needed the help.

Anywhere you look, Black people have been portrayed as criminals -- even and especially on the big screen.

“Is it surprising, then, that the casual murders of Black people — both those captured on smartphones and the many more that preceded the smartphone era — are predicated on the perception of us as violent, criminal threats?”

- Franklin Leonard

If we always portray Black people as criminals, why the hell would our algorithms act any differently?

Riddle me this: how can we trust AI to replace radiologists when only 5% of doctors in America are Black? When Black moms are 3-4x more likely to die from childbirth, or COVID?

Which of those statistics screams “Yes, we’ve got our shit figured out?”

Just as we cannot simply push forward, we cannot refuse to pay our debts. We cannot lecture other countries on human rights without bringing receipts.

How are we supposed to lead on AI design and ethics when we can’t even guarantee food, clean water, and clean air? When you can get a Whoppper for $2, but not a salad?

We have an enormous fucking opportunity to address each of these issues, at the root cause. We have a choice to make, and I know it seems crazy, but we don’t have to chose racism this time.

Building a cleaner and more just society doesn’t just mean hiring Black people behind the camera, hiring Black nurses, or planting more trees in hot redlined city blocks.

It means destroying the old systems that kept them out, and enabling the inclusive design of amazing new frameworks that are beneficial, profitable, transparent, and equitable. It means Doing Better Better.

Let’s go.

Climate Change & Clean Energy

Are carbon offsets the homeopathic medicine of climate change? Maybe!

Understand this: OK. This one’s a long time coming, and I promise you’re going to hear more about it soon.

A carbon offset is a theoretical reduction in emissions of CO2 (or methane, etc) you can buy in order to make up for burning gases elsewhere, with your lawnmower, your flight, your car, your business, your NFT, or say, your national economy.

The issue is, they’re mostly bullshit.

And that’s not great, because the pure volume of “net zero” greenwashing coming from companies, industries, and governments relies heavily on offsets that are unproven, redundant, or already disproven.

Or -- even better -- net zero pledges are made, usually by 2050, because why not, with very few real plans attached.

Some existing credits and plans depend on protecting carbon-sucking forests. From MIT:

“Forest offsets have been criticized for a variety of problems, including the risks that the carbon reductions will be short-lived, that carbon savings will be wiped out by increased logging elsewhere, and that the projects are preserving forests never in jeopardy of being chopped down, producing credits that don’t reflect real-world changes in carbon levels.”

What it means: So many of the growing pains society and the global economy are experiencing are due to a lack of standardized terminology, measurements, and transparency -- whether we’re talking about financial externalities, net zero, or offsets themselves.

And now, already, some of the biggest offset sellers -- like the Nature Conservancy -- are looking inward, following “a Bloomberg Green investigation last year that found the world’s largest environmental group taking credit for preserving trees in no danger of destruction.”

Right now you’re asking “Yes, but we do want to protect those forests, right?” And the answer is yes.

But selling offsets to huge companies like JP Morgan and Disney and markets like the EU -- offsets that protect already-safe forests -- doesn’t actually reduce the amount of CO2 in the air.

And in the worst case scenario, it just gives those companies more excuses, reasons, and time to keep burning, because buying bullshit credits is a hell of a lot cheaper than cutting emissions.

⚡️ Action Step: We don’t have the time or wiggle room to fuck this up. The THRIVE Act (learn more here) is a (fucking awesome) chance for Congress to go big and put 15 million people to work, cutting emissions in half in a huge boon for the planet, and environmental justice.

Use the sample script linked here to call your reps and demand they support it. Easy-peasy.

COVID

Birthrates, baby-making, and COVID

Understand this: For some reason, economists thought maybe COVID lockdowns would lead to more babies being made, and thus, born. Oh, how they were wrong. And not just in my house!

Going back a thousand years to 2019, the U.S. birth rate fell to its lowest levels since Hands Across America in 1986.

Making it marginally more complicated going forward: millions of Americans are refusing the vaccine, and COVID clearly affects pregnancies in a dangerous way.

From Science Mag, by way of JAMA Pediatrics:

“Those with COVID-19 had a 76% greater chance of pregnancy-induced high blood pressure, known as preeclampsia or eclampsia. They were three times as likely to have a severe infection and five times as likely to be admitted to an intensive care unit.”

What it means: The U.S. has administered almost 250 million shots, which is incredible.

And one day, COVID will become something manageable, like the flu. But we’re not there yet.

Check out the bigger implications:

If tens of millions of Americans across mostly red states refuse the vaccine
A greater share of pregnancies in those states remain in danger, states with far less reproductive health support
Birth rates decline and and maternal deaths increase disporportionately in those states
With more deaths, fewer new births, and less immigration, output and tax revenue (and payments into Social Security) decline
Those states maybe lose a few House seats, but retain the same number of senators
But those senators still represent even fewer people, less than a generation from now
Senators who, historically, vote against clean water and clean air, health care and Medicaid expansions, and other public health services

If this fun stack of dominoes seems far-fetched, let me introduce you to New York, who just lost a House seat after coming up just 89 people short on the census, or China or Japan.

⚡️ Action Step: Everyone deserves this vaccine.

But a huge portion of folks are refusing it, and millions of those are Evangelicals.

If you’ve got some of those friends in your life, please reach out in a non-confrontational way, and send them “Christians and the Vaccine”, a thoughtful and evidence-based COVID resource from Duke Divinity School.

It’s got all the questions and answers they need to protect themselves, and all the rest of us, too.

Medicine & Bio-tech

Mosquitos: 50 billion. Humans: Like 6?

Understand this: Hundreds of millions of folks are infected with malaria every year, and thousands of young kids die from it.

While we’ve made enormous strides, a warming world means the areas where malaria-carrying mosquitos can setup shop is growing. Fun.

But a new vaccine might mean the tables have turned.

From Vox in a great explainer, as they do:

“In a recently concluded clinical trial conducted by researchers from Oxford and the Clinical Research Unit of Nanoro, Burkina Faso, a new malaria vaccine called R21/MM demonstrated 77 percent efficacy in children in Burkina Faso. That’s a dramatic increase over the efficacy of the only currently available malaria vaccine, RTS,S, and might represent a huge breakthrough in the fight against the disease.

Malaria has proven absurdly difficult to vaccinate against. It’s caused by a parasite, not a bacterium or virus, and the parasite’s functioning in the body includes suppressing the immune response. For many diseases, infection leaves you immune for life, but it’s possible to catch malaria over and over again. And for many diseases, a vaccine just involves exposing the body to a dead or attenuated version of the disease agent. But that doesn’t really get results with malaria.”

What it means: It means one of the most difficult vaccine challenges in history is damn close to saving hundreds of thousands of lives, and improving childhood development.

The vaccine may require three shots plus a booster, which, wow, that’s a lot. But the current one, which kind of sucks, requires four!

If there’s anything I’ve learned from covering systemic science and societal issues, it’s to celebrate the little victories while we keep pushing for more radical progress.

⚡️ Action Step: One of the most effective NGO’s in the galaxy is the Against Malaria Foundation. A long-lasting insecticidal net costs just $2! Jesus. That’s ridiculous.

So while we wait on stage 3 trials for the new vaccine, throw some cash at saving lives right now.

Go Deeper

🎧 Listen up

Sometimes you come across one of our news items and think “I’d sure love to understand climate investing a lot better”, or “But Paddington 2 has always been the best film of all time.”

We get it. And that’s why our critically-acclaimed podcast is designed to compliment the thing you’re reading right now.

In long-form conversations that go deep on a single topic, you can learn the stories, tools, and favorite Action Steps of the world’s smartest people, from scientists to Congresswomen, farmers to CEO’s, journalists to the clergy (that’s right).

Get smarter for free right here.

Food & Water

What is this, Arrakis?

Understand this: In some ways, the climate crisis means more water, usually in the form of wetter rainstorms and hurricanes, rainy-day flooding and sea level rise.

In many others, it means less. Far less.

Drought conditions are growing globally, and while developed economies like California can spend $1 billion and 20 years accumulating enough water savings for a year or two, many parts of the world cannot.

From the LA Times:

“(It is) a disturbing measure of the parched land Jordan has become. This small kingdom has long ranked high on the list of water-poor countries. But a mix of a ballooning population, regional conflicts, chronic industrial and agricultural mismanagement and now climate change may soon bring it another distinction: the first nation to possibly lose viable sources of freshwater.”

What it means: Jordan’s not alone. Much of the Middle East is in a similar boat (which, really, considering the topic, might be the wrong metaphor), with temps projected to average 116 during the day soon.

As oil reaches its nadir, as we electrify everything, as the world grows hotter, water (and other precious earth resources) will become the focal points of 21st century societies and economies.

⚡️ Action Step: Water for South Sudan is an incredibly impactful organization, drilling wells in remote villages to help communities survive.

And keeping with the theme -- just $2 provides clean water to a person for an entire year. Donate here.

The Round Up

A Department of Energy app could cut home solar approvals down from weeks to a single day

Here's all the reasons why Taiwan is the most dangerous place on Earth

Expand your perspective: follow our awesome “Women in AI Ethics” Twitter list in one click.

The climate crisis could cut corn belt crop yields by 40% by 2050

Scientists are trying to figure out how long a COVID vaccine actually lasts

Fascinating stuff: steel production would be the third biggest emissions creator if it were a country. Here's how Biden (and a little company called Boston Metal) are going green.

What the hell is breadfruit and why is it so delicious (and sustainable)?

The Senate passed the Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act of 2021, which Ted Cruz voted against, because Texans definitely don’t need water, right

Australia -- covered in sunshine and on fire a lot -- has big climate ambitions, but they're stunted by "rightwing politics, media, and vested interests", which, boy, I guess those are airborne too?

Franklin Leonard, producer and CEO of The Black List, has partnered with The Redford Center to award $10,000 to each of three screenwriters for a feature screenplay or pilot with significant climate crisis and/or climate solution themes