Welcome back, Shit Givers.

In brief: The Western drought grows; China’s vaccine exports; menthol cigarettes on the run; bacon and Alzheimer’s; croissants and cancer.

This Week

It’s not a great week to be an Egyptian ship pilot.

One of the world’s largest cargo ships -- a ship taller than the Empire State Building -- getting stuck in the mud and thus, somehow, slowing down supply chains and fossil fuel deliveries everywhere is a pretty delightful metaphor for both 2021, and the transformation action required around emissions reduction.

Have no doubt. We’ll get it out. Countries and companies, all massively invested in that tiny little canal being wide open, will come together to free the ship. They’ll throw every tug boat and digger they’ve got at it.

Memes have been made, the pilot will be blamed, but maybe...maybe we can take a big step back, and have some perspective.

Why the hell is it the pilot’s fault?

Why do we rely on a tiny, historically fraught canal to support all the world’s trade? Why did we let this happen?

It might take a couple weeks, with progress painfully slow at times, but once the ship’s free, traffic jams can clear, and global trade can recommence, and maybe we won’t take such a tiny little canal for granted.

Gradually, we’ll free it. Suddenly, we’ll have perspective (I jest).

Some similar predicaments:

At current rates, it’ll take fifteen years to turn over the U.S. automobile fleet. And that’s nowhere near fast enough.

(Don’t believe me? Read to the bottom and use the calculator we’ve linked to.)

Electrification of power, transmission, and buildings could take decades. That’s nowhere near fast enough.

The U.S.’s first large-scale offshore wind project has taken twenty years to come to fruition. That’s not fast enough.

Deforestation isn’t slowing, it’s increasing, reducing carbon sinks and driving zoonotic disease outbreaks like the one that’s kept you in sweatpants for 12 months. That’s not good enough.

In 7 years, 12 states still haven’t adopted the Medicaid expansion, despite oodles of research that shows reduced deaths, especially in pregnant women of color and children.

We let ourselves get stuck, it’s a clusterfuck behind and in front of us, and we need to get out.

So what’s the answer?

Carrots and sticks.

Pay people to trade in their gas cars, but offer exciting and affordable EV’s.

Banish state laws that prohibit direct EV sales, but plan to transition dealership workers.

Punish banks that announce toothless net-zero commitments but throw $750 billion at fossil fuels, and create new standards for reporting.

Believe in markets? Stand by a carbon tax that’s $150/ton or go home. Lets see who’s ready to fucking innovate.

Believe in regulations? Fight for a Clean Electricity Standard, yesterday.

Believe in both?

Welcome to the team.

Climate Change & Clean Energy

Feeling a bit parched

Understand this: The U.S. West is crushed by drought again, and the outlook isn’t great looking forward.

There’s very little of the past we can use to predict the future, but the past few longer and deadlier fire seasons have proved that extended, deeper drought means a greater chance of deadly wildfires, exposure to wildfire smoke (2x as dangerous as “regular” air pollution), and far tighter water-use restrictions.

The West is used to dry conditions, of course (despite solid research that much of the West was colonized during a uniquely wet moment), but population growth and agriculture supply chains means we haven’t seen anything yet, as drought begets drought.

What it means: Summers in the northern hemisphere grew 17 days longer from 1952-2011, and they may grow to 166 days by 2100.

Longer, hotter summers mean more demands on water, and the new water futures market is already up 13% since just December.

Drought is just a piece of the climate puzzle, but an increasing one, and a big part of why the Climate Action 100+, an investor group with (checks math) $54 trillion under management and the Treasury and SEC want drastic action, now.

⚡️ Action Step: Biden’s due to announce a historically enormous infrastructure package, and soon.

Word is it’ll include many of the electrification pieces necessary to retrofit much of our power sector, from production to EV chargers.

Public pressure works. In 5 minutes, you can call each of your reps to demand support for the bill.

COVID

Diplomacy by needle

Understand this: The U.S. is barreling towards 200 million shots in Biden’s first 100 days, where a vaccine surplus may become our biggest headache.

It’s incredible progress. That any shots exist, of course, is a testament to a global effort towards a single scientific breakthrough, like we’ve never really seen before.

But not everyone is benefiting from such progress, as 2020 deals with drug manufacturers (and reluctance from Biden and the EU to change course) means billions across the world may not be vaccinated until 2023, not only leaving them susceptible to a virus that’s killed millions, but leaving significant opportunities for that virus to mutate further.

That’s where China comes in.

What it means: China’s shipping tens of millions of its own domestically produced vaccines across the globe.

In a moment when income gaps for developing countries are growing, when the world’s supply chains are still stuck in China, when rare resources and chip shortages affect everything from iPhones to EV’s, when China looks increasingly likely to invade Taiwan, they’re not only saving lives, but buying massive amounts of goodwill and influence.

⚡️ Action Step: Those of you in elected and policy positions should be pushing colleagues and Biden towards releasing 10x doses for COVAX.

For everyone else: GiveDirectly is raising cash for Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, and Rwanda, where 90%+ are eating less since COVID. Send cash now to help make the wait for shots a little easier.

Medicine & Bio-tech

Blowing smoke

Understand this: We’ve made huge strides against lung cancer and big tobacco, but one killer remains as deadly as ever: methane cigarettes.

But that may be about to change.

From The New York Times:

“Black smokers smoke less but die of heart attacks, strokes and other causes linked to tobacco use at higher rates than white smokers do, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And 85 percent of Black smokers use Newport, Kool and other menthol brands that are easier to become addicted to and harder to quit than plain tobacco, according to the Food and Drug Administration.

More than 120 localities have already enacted bans of flavored tobacco products, including menthol cigarettes, according to the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids. The African American Tobacco Control Leadership Council is running an anti-menthol campaign with Delta Sigma Theta, a historically Black sorority, and others. The council is also a plaintiff, along with the Action on Smoking and Health, in the citizens’ petition that forced the April 29 deadline for the F.D.A. to say whether or not it will ban menthol.”

What it means: Big Tobacco has a long, complicated, and racist history in the U.S., and as we’ve seen, it won’t go quietly.

Powerful elected officials on both sides of the aisle take money from tobacco companies.

⚡️ Action Step: Take action with and donate to the highly-rated Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids.

Food & Water

There goes the bacon

Understand this: Processed meat’s had a tough run, and a new study in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition isn’t helping.

From Gizmodo:

“The study found a link between greater consumption of processed meat and higher rates of Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia.

About 2,900 cases of dementia were diagnosed in the entire group, during an average eight-year follow-up period. And when the researchers tried to account for people’s diets, they found a clear association between processed meat and the risk of dementia, but they didn’t see the correlation when it came to other types of meat.”

What it means: No one study is conclusive, especially when it comes to diet. And bizarrely enough, the risk of dementia decreased slightly for folks who ate unprocessed meat. WTF.

But red meat’s a massive piece of the systemic climate and health puzzles: Drawdown ranks tropical forest restoration and plant-based diets as two of the most effective ways to reduce emissions.

⚡️ Action Step: Check out the Meatless Monday campaign to find a way to transition to plant-based options, and donate to the World Resources International’s Global Restoration Initiative.

Machines Big & Small

Croissants to beat cancer is a campaign I can get behind

Understand this: Famous accidents in science history:

• Radio astronomy
• Microwaves
• X-rays
• Ultron
• Penicillin
• Viagra
• Teflon
• Machine learning that was intended to differentiate between croissants and bear claws that can instead find cancer cells

What it means: I’ve been harping on people that pastries can save lives for what feels like eons, but here we are.

⚡️ Action Step: The future’s coming fast. Subscribe to The AI Ethics Brief, from the Montreal AI Ethics Institute, to stay up to speed.

The Round Up

It’s like Sim City, but for preventing mass death: Use the excellent EN-ROADS simulator to tweak global emissions reductions.

Pollution is shrinking penises and sperm counts. Paging Clive Owen.

Moderna vaccine testing on kids from 6 months to 12 years is underway.

This is the very tiny and just adorable car that’s also the best-selling EV on the goddamn planet (sorry, Model 3)

Related: The market for EV charging infrastructure is enormous, and we’re way behind. Can VW leapfrog Tesla’s network in the US?

India wants to jump ahead in going net-zero. Here’s 6 charts showing how insanely difficult that may be.

What will the world fight over in an era of green energy? Plenty.

Here’s exactly how pollution harms the body

We’re entering sci-fi territory, and not in a fun way: is it time to put cash towards solar geoengineering?

Pod Guests - In The News

Dr. Katharine Wilkinson was featured in Popsugar’s “Unstoppable Women in Climate Justice” lineup.

Rep. Sean Casten introduced a bill to cut industrial emissions.

500 Republicans have ties to the Capitol siege. Amanda Litman is using Run for Something to take them down, one by one.

Bina Venkataraman has teamed with author Ibram X. Kendi to resurrect abolitionist-era newspapers at The Emancipator (they’re looking for an Editor-in-Chief!)